Immediate Behavioral Response to the June 17, 2013 Flash Floods in Uttarakhand, North India

The 2013 Uttarakhand flash flood was such a surprise for those at risk that the predominant source of information for their risk was environmental cues and, secondarily, peer warnings rather than official warnings. Of those who received warnings, few received information other than the identity of the flood threat. A survey of 316 survivors found that most people\u27s first response was to immediately evacuate but some stayed to receive additional information, confirm their warnings, or engage in evacuation preparations. Unfortunately, engaging in these milling behaviors necessarily delayed their final evacuations. Mediation analysis revealed that psychological reactions mediated the relationship between information sources and behavioral responses. Further analyses revealed that immediate evacuation and evacuation delay were both predicted best by information search and positive affect, but correlation analyses indicated that a number of other models were also plausible. Final evacuation was best predicted by immediate evacuation and, to a significantly lesser extent, household together. Overall, results suggest that the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) should be considered a useful framework for examining household responses to flash floods in developing countries like India. It supports the conclusion that a household\u27s first warning source is a function of two distinct detection and dis- semination systems within a community—an official system and an informal system. However, it fails to capture what pre-impact emergency preparedness entails for rapid onset events in a developing country context. Further research is needed to determine the relative importance of situational and cultural characteristics in producing these observed differences

Perceptions and Expected Immediate Reactions to Severe Storm Displays

The National Weather Service has adopted warning polygons that more specifically indicate the risk area than its previous county-wide warnings. However, these polygons are not defined in terms of numerical strike probabilities (ps). To better understand people’s interpretations of warning polygons, 167 participants were shown 23 hypothetical scenarios in one of three information conditions—polygon-only (Condition A), polygon + tornadic storm cell (Condition B), and polygon + tornadic storm cell + flanking nontornadic storm cells (Condition C). Participants judged each polygon’s ps and reported the likelihood of taking nine different response actions. The polygon-only condition replicated the results of previous studies; ps was highest at the polygon’s centroid and declined in all directions from there. The two conditions displaying storm cells differed from the polygon-only condition only in having ps just as high at the polygon’s edge nearest the storm cell as at its centroid. Overall, ps values were positively correlated with expectations of continuing normal activities, seeking information from social sources, seeking shelter, and evacuating by car. These results indicate that participants make more appropriate ps judgments when polygons are presented in their natural context of radar displays than when they are presented in isolation. However, the fact that ps judgments had moderately positive correlations with both sheltering (a generally appropriate response) and evacuation (a generally inappropriate response) suggests that experiment participants experience the same ambivalence about these two protective actions as people threatened by actual tornadoes

Perceptions and Reactions to Tornado Warning Polygons: Would a Gradient Polygon Be Useful?

To better understand interpretations of National Weather tornado warning polygons, 145 participants were shown 22 hypothetical scenarios in one of four displays deterministic polygon, deterministic polygon + radar image, gradient polygon, and gradient polygon + radar image. Participants judged each numerical strike probability (ps ) and reported the likelihood of taking seven different response actions. The deterministic polygon display produced ps that were highest at the centroid and declined in all directions from there. The deterministic polygon + radar display, the gradient polygon display, and the gradient polygon + radar display produced ps that were high at the centroid and also at its edge nearest the tornadic storm cell. Overall, ps values were negatively related to resuming normal activities, but positively correlated with expectations of resuming normal activities, seeking information from social sources, seeking shelter, and evacuating by car. These results replicate the finding that participants make more appropriate ps judgments when polygons are presented in their natural context of radar images than when the polygons are presented in isolation and that gradient displays appear to provide no appreciable benefit. The fact that ps judgments had moderately positive correlations with both sheltering (a generally appropriate response) and evacuation (a generally inappropriate response) provides experimental confirmation that people threatened by actual tornadoes are conflicted about which protective action to take

Toward a Multi-stage Model of Hurricane Evacuation Decision: An Empirical Study of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

This study extended previous research by testing the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) on hurricane evacuation decisions during Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. An examination of this mediation model shows that a household’s evacuation decision, as predicted, is determined most directly by expected wind impacts and expected evacuation impediments. In turn, expected wind impacts and expected hydrological impacts are primarily determined by expected storm threat and expected rapid onset. Finally, expected storm threat, expected rapid onset, and expected evacuation impediments are determined by households’ personal characteristics, their reception of hurricane information, and their observations of social and environmental cues. These results are generally consistent with the PADM and reinforce the importance of testing multi-stage multi-equation models of hurricane evacuation

Predicting Residents’ Responses to the May 1-4, 2010, Boston Water Contamination Incident

This study examined 110 local residents’ warning sources, warning channels, warning receipt times, message content, risk perception, and behavioral responses (warning confirmation, and consumption of untreated tap water, boiled water, bottled water, and personally chlorinated water) during the May 1-4 2010 Boston water contamination incident. Most residents received warnings from peers and news media and these warnings mentioned 2.35 of five recommended elements of a warning message—most commonly the threat and the recommended protective action. TV was the most frequent channel for additional information, partly because it was the most frequent channel of routine information, but the Internet was also a common channel for additional information. Consumption of untreated tap water declined, consumption of personally chlorinated water remained negligible, and consumption of boiled water and bottled water increased during the incident. Warning receipt from an authority increased consumption of boiled water, whereas receipt of a less specific warning tended to increase consumption of bottled water. The distribution of warning times followed a logistic (S-shaped) distribution, with the largest increase taking place during prime TV news time (4-6pm). These results call attention to the need to increase the number of comprehensive warning response studies on rapid onset disasters to provide the basis for developing a comprehensive theory that can explain similarities and differences in responses to the full range of environmental hazards

Does Updating Natural Hazard Maps to Reflect Best Practices Increase Viewer Comprehension of Risk?

In this study, we examine whether updating an interactive hazard map using recommendations from the literature improves user map comprehension. Analyses of experimental data collected from 75 university students revealed that map comprehension scores were not significantly better for those who viewed a “best practices” map compared to those who viewed an existing version. This may be because the existing map was itself better than most other interactive maps. Additionally, we found map comprehension levels to have significant positive relationships with objective tests, but not self-reported measures of spatial ability. Moreover, self-reported spatial ability had statistically significant, but only moderately strong, correlations with objective tests. These results indicate that spatial ability should be measured objectively rather than through self-reported methods in research on map comprehension. Further research is needed to examine the cognitive processes involved in hazard map comprehension, especially using a broader range of map characteristics and population segments with more diverse cognitive abilities

Improving Students' Proportional Thinking Using Schema-Based Instruction

This study investigated the effectiveness of an instructional program (schema-based instruction, SBI) designed to teach 7th graders how to comprehend and solve proportion problems involving ratios/rates, scale drawings, and percents. The SBI program emphasized the underlying mathematical structure of problems via schematic diagrams, focused on a 4-step procedure to support and monitor problem solving, and addressed the flexible use of alternative solution strategies based on the problem situation. Blocking by teacher at three middle schools, the authors randomly assigned the 21 classrooms to one of two conditions: SBI and control. Classroom teachers provided the instruction. Results of multilevel modeling used to test for treatment effects after accounting for pretests and other characteristics (gender, ethnicity) revealed the direct effects of SBI on mathematical problem solving at posttest. However, the improved problem solving skills were not maintained a month later when SBI was no longer in effect nor did the skills transfer to solving problems in new domain-level content

Perceptions, Behavioral Expectations, and Implementation Timing for Response Actions in a Hurricane Emergency

This study examined the perceived attributes, behavioral expectations, and expected implementation timing of 11 organizational emergency response actions for hurricane emergencies. The perceived attributes of the hurricane response actions were characterized by two hazard-related attributes (effectiveness for person protection and property protection) and five resource-related attributes (financial costs, required knowledge/skill, required equipment, required time/effort, and required cooperation). A total of 155 introductory psychology students responded to a hypothetical scenario involving an approaching Category 4 hurricane. The data collected in this study explain previous findings of untimely protective action decision making. Specifically, these data reveal distinctly different patterns for the expected implementation of preparatory actions and evacuation recommendations. Participants used the hazard-related and resource-related attributes to differentiate among the response actions and the expected timing of implementation. Moreover, participants’ behavioral expectations and expected implementation timing for the response actions were most strongly correlated with those actions’ effectiveness for person protection. Finally, participants reported evacuation implementation times that were consistent with a phased evacuation strategy in which risk areas are evacuated in order of their proximity to the coast. However, the late initiation of evacuation in risk areas closest to the coast could lead to very late evacuation of risk areas farther inland

How Do Perceptions of Risk Communicator Attributes Affect Emergency Response? An Examination of a Water Contamination Emergency in Boston, USA

A water main break that contaminated the Boston area\u27s water distribution system prompted a four-day “boil water” order. To understand risk communication during this incident, 600 randomly sampled residents were mailed questionnaires, yielding 110 valid responses. This article describes how perceptions of different social stakeholders influenced whether respondents complied with the Protective Action Recommendation—PAR (i.e., drank boiled water), took alternative protective actions (i.e., drank bottled water or/and self-chlorinated water), or ignored the threat (i.e., continued to drink untreated tap water). Respondents perceived technical authorities (i.e., water utility, public health, and emergency management) to be higher on three social influence attributes (hazard expertize, trustworthiness, and protection responsibility) than public (i.e., news media, elected officials) and private (i.e., self/family, peers, and personal physicians) intermediate sources. Furthermore, respondents were most likely to comply with the PAR if they perceived authorities and public intermediates to be high on all three attributes and if they had larger households and lower income. Contrarily, they were more likely to take alternative actions if they were younger and had higher levels of income, risk perception, and emergency preparedness. These results underscore the need for technical authorities to develop credibility with their potential audiences before a crisis occurs

Inflatable Re-entry Vehicle Experiment (IRVE-4) Overview

The suite of Inflatable Re-Entry Vehicle Experiments (IRVE) is designed to further our knowledge and understanding of Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerators (HIADs). Before infusion into a future mission, three challenges need to be addressed: surviving the heat pulse during re-entry, demonstrating system performance at relevant scales, and demonstrating controllability in the atmosphere. IRVE-4 will contribute to a better understanding of controllability by characterizing how a HIAD responds to a set of controlled inputs. The ability to control a HIAD is vital for missions that are g-limited, require precision targeting and guidance for aerocapture or entry, descent, and landing. The IRVE-4 flight test will focus on taking a first look into controlling a HIAD. This paper will give an overview of the IRVE-4 mission including the control response portion of the flight test sequence, and will provide a review of the mission s development